Short-term Impact on Travel Flows Following the Military Escalation
With the outbreak of the war, flight connections via Gulf hubs were initially disrupted and have not yet returned to pre-crisis frequency levels.
According to Tourism Economics, 14% of global international transit traffic is routed through Gulf hubs. Approximately 28 million trips from the Middle East are affected, 60% of which are destined for Europe.
In the event of a three-month period of significant disruption to air traffic and access to airspace across a substantial number of destinations in the Middle East, followed by a gradual reopening in the subsequent weeks, UN Tourism (as of April 15, 2026) estimates that a full recovery of travel could take five to six months after flights resume, pointing to October or November 2026. Under this more uncertain scenario, UN Tourism projects that international tourist arrivals in the Middle East could decline by 24% to 28% in 2026. This would correspond to 24 to 28 million fewer international tourists (more than 2% of global arrivals). Such disruption to travel would result in an estimated loss of USD 40 billion in visitor spending across Middle Eastern destinations.
In Germany, 4.2% of all flight arrivals in 2025 were routed via Gulf hubs. Of these, 55.1% originated directly from the UAE, while 44.9% were transit passengers.
By source market, dependency on Gulf hubs varies significantly: in 2025, 73.2% of travelers from the Gulf states reached Germany via Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Doha. The share was 31.4% for Singapore, 16% for India, 6.9% for China, and 4.6% for Japan.
After a decline of 39% in the number of flight arrivals to Germany via Gulf hubs in March 2026 compared to March 2025, this decrease eased somewhat to -28% in April 2026 compared to April 2025 (data available through April 26, 2026). [Updated in the version of June 1, 2026]: Initial available data for May 2026 indicate a further improvement in arrivals to Germany via Gulf hub airports.
Markets directly affected by the Middle East conflict generated the following inbound volume in 2025: Israel accounted for 0.6 million overnight stays (0.8% market share), while the Gulf states generated 1.2 million overnight stays (1.5% market share). Due to the above-average travel spend of GCC travelers, these declines have a disproportionately high impact on tourism revenue.
Economic Impact
The global increase in economy airfare prices of 24% year-on-year already observed since the beginning of the year has gained further momentum due to the sharp rise in oil and jet fuel prices following the outbreak of the war. As a result of global spot market prices, ticket prices are increasing worldwide, including in countries not directly affected by the conflict.
On April 16, 2026, the Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that Europe may have only about six weeks of aviation fuel remaining. Some flights between European cities could be cancelled if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon. The EU Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, stated that despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, the European Union has sufficient aviation fuel reserves for the coming weeks but is preparing precautionary measures should disruptions persist.
[Updated in the version of June 1, 2026]: The European Commission stated that there is currently no shortage of aviation fuel and that such a shortage is not expected in the future—provided that the Strait of Hormuz reopens at the beginning of June. This marks a clear shift compared to the alarming warnings issued just a few weeks earlier. However, concerns regarding fuel supply remain through early autumn should the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continue and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fail to return to normal volumes (ETC Iran Conflict Monitor, May 26, 2026).
The European Commission adopted guidelines for the EU transport and tourism sector in response to ongoing fuel supply disruptions and the closure of certain air and maritime routes related to the Middle East crisis. The guidelines focus on aviation and specifically address the potential impact of jet fuel shortages should the conflict continue.
OECD Europe ranks first among import regions dependent on the Middle East. The Middle East has typically supplied up to 375 thousand barrels per day, or 75% of Europe’s net jet fuel imports. In April 2026, North America and Africa (Nigeria) are replacing parts of jet fuel imports from the Middle East.
Although crude oil prices rose by 64% in March 2026 following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tourism Economics, analysts expect “only” a 5% to 10% increase in base air fares.
According to an analysis of data from Amadeus/Forward Keys for the key overseas inbound markets—such as the USA, China and India—there is no evidence of an increase in average base fares (excluding taxes and surcharges) for flights to Germany in April 2026 compared with April of the previous year. In April 2026, average base fares excluding taxes and surcharges for flights from the UAE to Germany remain above the previous year’s level. For other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Israel, prices in April 2026 are lower than in April 2025.
At the same time, gasoline prices have risen significantly, meaning the industry expects an impact on travel costs for car travel in Europe. With a share of 44% in the modal split, the car is the main mode of transport for European travelers to Germany.
Deutsche Bahn has announced price stability for ICE ticket prices for one year.
The extent to which oil prices will rise and ticket prices will increase depends, among other factors, on how long the military conflict lasts, when the Strait of Hormuz becomes fully navigable again, when the oil and gas infrastructure is restored, and the outcomes of potential peace negotiations.
Airlines, including Lufthansa, are cutting capacity. According to The Guardian, around 2 million airline seats have been removed from May flight schedules worldwide. This is due to a sharp rise in kerosene prices and increased uncertainty regarding planning. According to Cirium data, around 13,000 fewer flights are scheduled to take place in May; although this represents less than 2% of global capacity, it may be significantly noticeable on individual routes and at hubs.
[Updated in the version of June 1, 2026]: Despite the significant disruptions to travel caused by the war in Iran and exceptionally high jet fuel prices, global flight ticket bookings in March and April for travel between June and September increased by 6% compared to the same months in 2025.
At present, it is not yet possible to assess how logistics costs in maritime transport—such as for fuel, insurance, and risk optimization of transport routes—will affect trade in goods in the medium to long term.
A potential global economic crisis caused by disrupted supply chains could also weaken tourist flows due to declining purchasing power in affected source markets. However, there are currently no reliable indicators for this.
Shifts in Travel Flows and Market Segments
The European Travel Commission (ETC) provides a comprehensive analysis of the interconnected impacts—particularly driven by disruptions in air transport—in its “Iran Conflict Monitor – Impact on European Tourism” (covering March 17–28). The report highlights a differentiated market sentiment.
Travel behavior is shifting: many travelers are booking earlier than usual to secure current price levels and are increasingly choosing alternative, safe, and cost-efficient destinations. Short- and medium-haul destinations are expected to benefit most from this trend.
Resilience of German Inbound Tourism
Approximately 77% of international overnight stays in Germany are generated by European source markets. In addition, intra-European travel demand is expected to increase in 2026 as a result of the current conflict. European Travel Comission data indicates a rise in intra-European travel intentions by five percentage points compared to the previous year.
This is supported by an initial Appinio study commissioned by the GNTB, which shows increasing travel intent to Germany from key source markets such as the Netherlands and Belgium.
[Updated in the version of June 1, 2026]: According to IATA analyses, Europeans are flying 8% less frequently to destinations outside the region compared to the same period last year, while bookings for travel within Europe have increased by 2%. Amadeus data continue to show strong growth in regional flight searches within Europe (+29%).
Based on the analysis of various sources, Tourism Economics published several forecast scenarios for German inbound tourism on April 8.
In the baseline scenario—assuming a rapid end to the war—analysts forecast a 1.9% year-on-year increase in international overnight stays in Germany from Europe. In the downside scenario—assuming the military conflict lasts six months—the increase in inbound tourism would shrink to 0.3%.
A more differentiated picture is currently emerging in the overseas markets. For affected transit markets in Southeast Asia, 70% of travel companies are currently reporting postponements or cancellations of trips to Europe, while around 24% expect a redirection of demand in favor of Europe. ETOA reports that around 85% of U.S. group tours to Germany have already been firmly booked.
[Updated in the version of May 13, 2026]: As a result of a survey conducted among tour operators and DMCs in early May 2026, ETOA reports that one third are experiencing major impacts from the Middle East crisis, requiring significant operational adjustments.
For GCC markets, the GNTB expects reduced flight capacity, rising prices, and increased cancellations in 2026. At the same time, Germany continues to be perceived as a safe, stable, and climate-attractive destination. The pre-conflict growth forecast of +5% has been revised to –14%, based on flight data and an assumed conflict duration of four months.
For Israel, air traffic restrictions are leading to a significant decline in overnight stays. Based on connectivity and flight data, the GNTB forecasts a –18% decrease in 2026 year-on-year.
For overseas markets overall, Tourism Economics forecasts a 4.5% increase in inbound tourism to Germany in 2026 under the baseline scenario. In the downside scenario, losses of 9.3% could occur.
Stable Demand on Online Travel Platforms
According to analyses by TripAdvisor, demand for travel to Germany recovered shortly after the outbreak of the conflict. This is supported by a strong perception of Western Europe as a safe destination compared to the crisis region. No significant declines in demand have been observed from the US and the EU; only the Asia-Pacific region shows more volatile demand patterns.
Expedia recorded a decline in search volumes for Germany for the period following the outbreak of the war (February 28, 2026 – May 3, 2026), with the decrease at -2.6%, performing better than Europe overall (-4.2%). During the same period, the number of travelers increased by 3.3% and gross bookings rose by 9.1%. Half of the gross bookings were generated by international travelers.
Conclusion
The military conflicts in the Middle East are having both direct and indirect effects on inbound tourism to Germany.
Opportunities for Germany as a travel destination in international competition are based on its positive image as a safe, high-quality destination and the current trend toward intra-European travel.
Among European competitors, Germany benefits from a very competitive price level. According to MKG Consulting, hotel prices in Germany in the first quarter of 2026 averaged €99, slightly below the previous year’s level (€101) and significantly below prices in competing destinations such as France, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, and Austria.
Overall, there are realistic chances that declines from the Middle East can be structurally offset by visitors from Europe and overseas markets such as the USA, China, Japan, or India. Previous crises have already demonstrated the high resilience of inbound tourism due to its broad market diversification.
Provided there is no further escalation of conflicts and no global economic crisis emerges, German inbound tourism could once again prove to be resilient.
Up until the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the GNTB had projected growth in global inbound tourism to Germany of +3.2% for 2026, based on the assumption of a stable geopolitical environment without sharp increases in oil prices or inflation.
Updated projections by Tourism Economics (April 8, 2026) reflect scenario-based adjustments in line with current developments:
