Short-term Impact on Travel Flows Following the Military Escalation
With the outbreak of the war, flight connections via Gulf hubs were initially disrupted and have not yet returned to pre-crisis frequency levels.
According to Tourism Economics, 14% of global international transit traffic is routed through Gulf hubs. Approximately 28 million trips from the Middle East are affected, 60% of which are destined for Europe.
[Updated in the version of April 22, 2026]: In the event of a three-month period of significant disruption to air traffic and access to airspace across a substantial number of destinations in the Middle East, followed by a gradual reopening in the subsequent weeks, UN Tourism (as of April 15, 2026) estimates that a full recovery of travel could take five to six months after flights resume, pointing to October or November 2026. Under this more uncertain scenario, UN Tourism projects that international tourist arrivals in the Middle East could decline by 24% to 28% in 2026. This would correspond to 24 to 28 million fewer international tourists (more than 2% of global arrivals). Such disruption to travel would result in an estimated loss of USD 40 billion in visitor spending across Middle Eastern destinations.
In Germany, 4.2% of all flight arrivals in 2025 were routed via Gulf hubs. Of these, 55.1% originated directly from the UAE, while 44.9% were transit passengers.
By source market, dependency on Gulf hubs varies significantly: in 2025, 73.2% of travelers from the Gulf states reached Germany via Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Doha. The share was 31.4% for Singapore, 16% for India, 6.9% for China, and 4.6% for Japan.
In March 2026, flight arrivals in Germany via Gulf hubs declined by one third compared to the previous year.
Markets directly affected by the Middle East conflict generated the following inbound volume in 2025: Israel accounted for 0.6 million overnight stays (0.8% market share), while the Gulf states generated 1.2 million overnight stays (1.5% market share). Due to the above-average travel spend of GCC travelers, these declines have a disproportionately high impact on tourism revenue.
Economic Impact
Since the beginning of the year, global economy airfares have already increased by 24% year-on-year. This trend has accelerated further due to the sharp rise in oil and jet fuel prices following the outbreak of the conflict. As a result, ticket prices are increasing globally, including in markets not directly affected by the war.
On April 10, 2026, ACI (Airports Council International Europe) wrote to the European Commission in Brussels, warning of jet fuel shortages in Europe if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not lifted within three weeks.
[Updated in the version of April 22, 2026]: On April 16, 2026, the Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that Europe may have only about six weeks of aviation fuel remaining. Some flights between European cities could be cancelled if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon. The European Commission is already preparing coordinated measures should the situation in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Although crude oil prices rose by 64% in March 2026 following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (Tourism Economics), analysts currently expect a comparatively moderate increase in base airfares of 5–10%.
[Updated in the version of April 22, 2026]: Based on an analysis of data from Amadeus/ForwardKeys, no increase in average base fares (excluding taxes and surcharges) for flights to Germany can be identified for March 2026 in key inbound markets such as the USA, China, and India. However, average base fares (excluding taxes and surcharges) have increased for potential flights from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Israel.
At the same time, rising fuel prices are also impacting road travel costs. With a modal share of 44%, car travel remains the primary mode of transport for European inbound travel to Germany, making this segment particularly sensitive to price increases.
Future price developments for oil and airfares will depend on several key factors: the duration of the military conflict, the reopening and security of the Strait of Hormuz, the restoration of oil and gas infrastructure, and the outcomes of potential peace negotiations.
At this stage, the medium- to long-term impact on global logistics costs—particularly in maritime transport, including fuel, insurance, and route risk optimization—remains highly uncertain.
A potential global economic downturn caused by disrupted supply chains could weaken tourism demand through declining purchasing power in key source markets. However, there are currently no robust indicators confirming this scenario.
Shifts in Travel Flows and Market Segments
The European Travel Commission (ETC) provides a comprehensive analysis of the interconnected impacts—particularly driven by disruptions in air transport—in its “Iran Conflict Monitor – Impact on European Tourism” (covering March 17–31). The report highlights a differentiated market sentiment.
Travel behavior is shifting: many travelers are booking earlier than usual to secure current price levels and are increasingly choosing alternative, safe, and cost-efficient destinations. Short- and medium-haul destinations are expected to benefit most from this trend.
Resilience of German Inbound Tourism
Approximately 77% of international overnight stays in Germany are generated by European source markets. In addition, intra-European travel demand is expected to increase in 2026 as a result of the current conflict. European Travel Comission data indicates a rise in intra-European travel intentions by five percentage points compared to the previous year.
This is supported by an initial Appinio study commissioned by the GNTB, which shows increasing travel intent to Germany from key source markets such as the Netherlands and Belgium.
Based on the analysis of various sources, Tourism Economics published several forecast scenarios for German inbound tourism on April 8.
In the baseline scenario—assuming a rapid end to the war—analysts forecast a 1.9% year-on-year increase in international overnight stays in Germany from Europe. In the downside scenario—assuming the military conflict lasts six months—the increase in inbound tourism would shrink to 0.3%.
A more differentiated picture is currently emerging in the overseas markets. For affected transit markets in Southeast Asia, 70% of travel companies are currently reporting postponements or cancellations of trips to Europe, while around 24% expect a redirection of demand in favor of Europe. ETOA reports that around 85% of U.S. group tours to Germany have already been firmly booked.
For GCC markets, the GNTB expects reduced flight capacity, rising prices, and increased cancellations in 2026. At the same time, Germany continues to be perceived as a safe, stable, and climate-attractive destination. The pre-conflict growth forecast of +5% has been revised to –14%, based on flight data and an assumed conflict duration of four months.
For Israel, air traffic restrictions are leading to a significant decline in overnight stays. Based on connectivity and flight data, the GNTB forecasts a –18% decrease in 2026 year-on-year.
For overseas markets overall, Tourism Economics forecasts a 4.5% increase in inbound tourism to Germany in 2026 under the baseline scenario. In the downside scenario, losses of 9.3% could occur.
Stable Demand on Online Travel Platforms
According to analyses by TripAdvisor, demand for travel to Germany recovered shortly after the outbreak of the conflict. This is supported by a strong perception of Western Europe as a safe destination compared to the crisis region. No significant declines in demand have been observed from the US and the EU; only the Asia-Pacific region shows more volatile demand patterns.
Since the beginning of the crisis, Expedia has recorded a slight decrease in search queries for Germany of 1.5% year-on-year, while at the same time reporting a significant increase in gross bookings to Germany of 8.2%.
Conclusion
The military conflict in the Middle East has both direct and indirect effects on German inbound tourism.
Among European competitors, Germany benefits from a very competitive price level. According to MKG Consulting, hotel prices in Germany in January/February 2026 averaged €98, exactly in line with the previous year and significantly below prices in competing destinations such as France, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, and Austria.
Germany maintains a clear price advantage: according to MKG Consulting, average hotel prices in January/February 2026 remained stable at €98, significantly below key competitors such as France, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, and Austria.
Declines from Middle Eastern markets are likely to be partially offset by increased demand from Europe and key long-haul markets such as the US, China, Japan, and India. Previous crises have demonstrated the high resilience of German inbound tourism, supported by its diversified market structure.
Provided there is no further geopolitical escalation or global economic downturn, German inbound tourism has strong potential to once again demonstrate crisis resilience.
Prior to the Iran conflict, the GNTB projected inbound growth of +3.2% for 2026, assuming stable geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
Updated projections by Tourism Economics (April 8, 2026) reflect scenario-based adjustments in line with current developments:
