Overview of the GNTB's market analyses

As a result, inbound tourism will lose some of its key drivers. Just to illustrate: in May, June, July and August, traditionally the months with the most overnight stays, Germany would see 28.1 million fewer overnight stays by Europeans than in 2019. A complete cancellation of the 2020 summer season would mean a loss in revenue of €16.4 billion and a drop of 42.2 per cent in the total volume of overnight stays from Europe.

In today’s blog, I will provide a brief overview of various market analyses. Based on a number of studies, we have established our expectations for the coming months, adjusted and fine-tuned our marketing plans, and are offering you, our partners, decision-making aids for your marketing activities.

We presented our assessment this week in a video conference with all of our regional marketing organisations.

As-is analysis – the power of facts

An as-is analysis is an integral part of how we look at the market.

According to ForwardKeys, a specialist in flight bookings, long-haul arrivals from Europe were down 36.4 per cent year on year in the first quarter. As at 15 April, advance bookings of intercontinental flights to Germany between April and September fell by 71.5 per cent.

A survey by TripAdvisor in five countries shows that 61 per cent of respondents have changed their travel plans since the start of the coronavirus crisis, but only 17 per cent have actually cancelled their trip. 89 per cent of respondents plan to travel internationally again; 24 per cent of these within one to two months after the end of the pandemic, while 48 per cent plan to embark on their trip three to six months later.

Experience and market expertise – authoritative future scenarios

This scenario is confirmed by the forecasts of international organisations and market observers. As early as March, the United Nations World Tourism Organization adjusted its initial forecast from a 3 to 4 per cent increase for the current year to a 20 to 30 per cent drop.

According to the March edition of IPK International’s World Travel Monitor, 20 per cent fewer trips will be taken in 2020 overall. This affects all continents equally.

The centre for tourism at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) has identified four phases in its first Recovery Check analysis: shutdown, easing, recovery and normalisation. This realistic scenario assumes an easing phase from mid-May onwards, with around 35 per cent of the previous year’s revenue generated by the end of September.

Oxford Economics and its experts at Tourism Economics extrapolate the trend in international arrivals through a range of key economic data. According to its research, inbound tourism to Europe in 2020 will fall by around 39 per cent in total compared to 2019, with the largest drop in arrivals from the US (down 45 per cent) and China (down 50 per cent). We have also commissioned Oxford Economics to carry out an analysis of the economic impact on Germany’s inbound tourism industry.

The GNTB is looking further ahead – our goal is #SeeYouSoonBackInGermany

All of these scenarios call for specific marketing activities. You will be familiar with our #DiscoverGermanyFromHome campaign, which went live on 16 March and includes bucket lists, surveys, inspiring images and a microsite. It brings together virtual experiences, digital offerings, Spotify playlists, an interactive map, a quiz and recipes – basically, everything that makes people want to visit Destination Germany. The reach and the response rates are extraordinarily high.

This will provide the basis for our understanding of the ‘next normal’.

We are hoping for a gradual opening up of the market, possibly as a first step towards a bilateral solution, provided that the international travel warnings are lifted and a wide-ranging assessment of risks and dangers in the respective source markets is carried out. Quarantine requirements and the ban on overnight stays by tourists will also have to be lifted in all 16 federal states. A further prerequisite is that airlines, hotels, leisure facilities and other organisations establish a common ‘code of contact’ with regard to hygiene and safety standards.

The crisis has also given rise to many solidarity measures and innovative ideas.

One interesting example is Sebastian Worel’s bookingkit, a reopening concept for attractions, theme parks, museums and similar venues. It covers everything from the current challenges of reopening to the optimal preparation of admissions management and the organisation of hygiene measures.

Numerous other initiatives demonstrate the ability to innovate and think entrepreneurially within Germany’s inbound tourism industry. I welcome any further suggestions.

The German Tourism Association recently presented a paper on the prospects for a harmonised, nationwide restart of inbound tourism to Germany.

That’s it for this week.

Please stay optimistic and, above all, stay healthy!

I am looking forward to the day when we can once again welcome international guests to Germany in large numbers.

Petra Hedorfer